NFL Week 5 Gambling Companion: Lock of the Year Edition
Last week we finished up +5.35 units on an 11-9-1 record to bring our season total to 43-41-2 and +2.85 units on the year. We’re in the green, and it didn’t happen by accident. I take an extremely disciplined grinder mentality to this. By the end of the season we’ll have had a lot of fun with a lot of gambling action and are going to end up either + or – 5% on the year.
One of the things that I see with newer / novice gamblers that lead to big losses and poor experiences with sports wagering are an over-reliance on Same Game Parlay bets. These bets are like buying powerball tickets with not too different chances of being successful. Are they fun? Sure. Are they profitable? No, and not in the short or long terms. Understand this: Same Game Parlays are gambling death.
This week I’ve got my favorite wager that I’ve seen on the board all year, and I’m excited to share it with you. Let’s get to the action. All odds are via Draftkings Sportsbook (use promo code “boot” at sign up to support the cause) and all wagers are 1 unit at -110 odds unless otherwise specified.
Seahawks @ Saints -5.5 o/u 46
My reverse mush psychology of betting on the Vikings ml against the Saints worked last week. My ‘buying a win strategy’ will again be employed this week, but in a different way. You see, the Saints are pretty heavy favorites in this one, and I’m not too sure they deserve to be. Taking Seahawks +5.5 2 units feels like a safe bet. I can see an ideal win / don’t cover in the Saints future on this one. I’m either walking out of the dome as a winner as a Saints fan on Sunday or a winner as a bettor. Let’s show a little educated homer-ism by also taking Rookie WR Sensation Chris Olave OVER 63.5 yds rec -110.
Lions @ Patriots -3.5 o/u 45.5
I don’t understand the Patriots as 3.5 point home favorites here. I think that the Lions are the better team. There’s a lot of injury uncertainty at QB for the Pats in this one, but regardless of all that one thing is pretty certain when the Lions play this year: they’re gonna score in bunches and so are their opponents, typically via the run game.
This game features my “lock of the year” (so far). I feel very comfortable employing a 2 way 6 point teaser taking the total down to 39.5 and taking the over and pushing the Lions from +3.5 to +9.5. The Lions are masters of the cover. I don’t see this iteration of the Patriots beating a team like this by double digits, and a total over 40 feels like a certainty. -120 odds on this teaser and a 3.6 unit wager should pair nicely. I don’t usually project straight faced hyperbole, but I believe this is the best wager I’ve seen all year.
Giants @ Packers -7.5 o/u 41
A matchup of two 3-1 teams with a pretty wide spread that surpasses 7 and includes the “Hook” of a .5, I really am drawn to the Giants +7.5 on this one. Rodgers hasn’t shown the stuff of an MVP caliber QB this season so far like he did last year. Rodgers OVER 226.5 passing yds -120 still feels like an easy hill for him to climb though for an MVP guy versus a team like the Giants.
Steelers @ Bills -14 o/u 45.5
Wow, the biggest point spread so far this year for the home team going against a rookie QB making his first start. I’d normally jump all over 14.5 free points for just about any NFL road dog, but I’m a little reticent to do so here given we don’t know exactly what Pittsburgh is working with at QB here. I like instead of taking this gargantuan spread to do something a little more creative, and smaller, by going Buffalo 3rd Quarter spread -3.
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay -10 o/u 46
I do not like these massive double digit spreads in interdivision games. Atlanta has shown a few signs of life here and there. Given TB’s injury woes I don’t see them running away from a divisional foe like this. Give me Atlanta +10. Tampa has looked stout on defense though and Mariota isn’t what we’d call a ‘passing quarterback’ so I’ll also take Mariota UNDER 195.5 passing yds -115
Texans @ Jaguars -7 o/u 43.5
This will be fun. Two hapless darling teams that have been in recent years at the bottom of the NFL totem pole. I think the Jags win here but I’m 50/50 on if it’s going to be a blowout or not. We do know that they’ll continue to target Christian Kirk with regularity. Kirk OVER 66.5 rec yds -115 is the play. The weekly reader will know I’m a sucker for non mobile QB’s with very low rushing totals. Davis Mills OVER 1.5 yds rushing -115 scratches that itch for me, and I don’t think we’ll backdoor lose this one due to a Mills victory formation at the end.
Bears @ Vikings -7.5 o/u 44
One of the wagers I was most proud of last week was the Bears total points band 11-20 at +200 odds. The bookies and the devil are onto us this week, and while I still believe Bears points band 11-20 is the play again, we’re only going to get it at +120 this week. I also like at +130 Cairos Santos OVER 1.5 fgs.
Chargers @ Browns -2 o/u 47
This spread feels suspect to me. LA’s fortunes in this game will of course be tied to the success of Justin Herbert. Last year Herbert was a consistent 300+ yd per game passer, which is why I feel comfortable jumping all over the value of Herbert OVER 274.5 passing yds -115. I also see a scenario where if the Chargers don’t win outright, they’re storming back at the end. I’ll add Chargers 4th Quarter moneyline -110 and feel very good about it.
Dolphins @ Jets +3.5 o/u 46
I’m not sure how alone I am in this, but I believe in a scenario where the Dolphins improve with Teddy B at QB as opposed to Tua. Taking Tyreek Hill ANYTIME TD +110 is an extension of that. The Jets are already a team that likes to throw it a good bit this year, so I also like Zach “mates with mothers” Wilson OVER 19.5 completions -130 to the tune of 3 units. The total of 46 in this one also seems pretty easy to pop. Let’s Take the over of 46.
Titans @ Team from coordinates 38.9072° N, 77.0369° W +1.5 o/u 43
I’m not understanding the Titans disrespect at all this year. Only being 1.5 point favorites on the road in the swamps of DC feels beneath the Titans. Give me Titans -1.5. Easy, clean, done. Next.
49ers @ Panthers +6.5 o/u 39.5
I fear that this will likely be the last week we will be able to monetize the suck that is Baker Mayfield. This saddens me greatly. We’ll see Sam Darnold. Hell, we may even see Matt Rhule get the can after this one. This game is likely going to be ugly. Let’s get creative:
- Panthers Team Total Points UNDER 16.5 -120
- Mayfield UNDER 205.5 passing/rushing yds -115
- 49ers 1st to score/moneyline +115
- 49ers to win both halves +155
Eagles @ Cardinals +5 o/u 48.5
Let’s parlay the Over 48.5 along with Eagles ml for +175. I also feel very good about taking the Eagles Point Band 31-40 +230. Finally, let’s go old school missionary style with an Eagles -5 cover.
Cowboys @ Rams -5.5 o/u 43
Another unexplainable line on this one as the Rams really haven’t been too impressive this year as defending Super Bowl Champs. They’re Cooper Kupp on offense and little else. The Cowboys look like steady winners with the no frills back QB of Cooper Rush. Let’s employ the teaser here again with a 6 point teaser bringing spread to Cowboys +11.5 and tease the total up to 49 and take the under.
Both the Sunday and Monday night prime time games look like fun, but I’m going to stay away from both. Thanks for checking out this week’s column. Just a little note that there is NO Taking the Over podcast this week as both the Tout King and I are leading pretty hectic lives away from the Tout-ery. We’ll see ya’ll again next week, and STAY OFF OF THE SAME GAME PARLAYS!!!
