NFL Week 2 – All 16 Games with 23 Suggested Bets
NFL Week 1 was a glorious and fun return to wagering on pro football. Last week in this column we laid out 19 bets representing 22 units. When the smoke cleared, we finished with a 10-9 record, down .66 units (-3% of money wagered). To put it in context, if we had wagered $220 dollars on the slate we would have finished the week with $6 less than we started. Such is gambling. We had $6 worth of fun. I’ll take that result.
This week we’re going to lean on my podcasting co-host, the mysterious Mr. “t” (we’ll call him KOAT or King of All Touts for the remainder of the article). KOAT is a smart data driven gambler. Well versed with a sharp analytical mind. He’s 11-6 individually with his documented NFL picks so far on the year. We call that a somewhat warm to hot streak. In wagering you want to ride the hot capper’s hand until it shows signs of cooling. Let’s get to work. All bets represent 1 unit and all odds represent -110 unless otherwise noted. Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Buccaneers @ Saints +2.5 o/u 44.5
It’s well established that the Saints are 4-0 against the Bucs with Tom Brady since he arrived in Tampa in regular season divisional game, with one post-season loss due to Jared Cook. Math would suggest this would change soon. Good thing for us as Saints fans, MATH DOESN’T CHECK THE INJURY REPORT. Tamp Tom is down 3 receivers and potentially at least 3 offensive lineman coming into this game. While this Saints secondary looks different than the ones that have faced Brady in the last couple of years, I believe Dennis Allen and a more powerful offense will prevail again at home.
Also, Michael Thomas will make an example of Carlton Davis. The picks:
- Saints moneyline (ml) +125
- Michael Thomas OVER 56.5 receiving yards -115 (this line opened at 52.5, but has been moving north ever since)
- While still not published yet on Draftkings Sportsbook, we’re going to do a Michael Thomas Anytime TD and also throw a unit at Michael Thomas 2 TD’s unless the 2 TD’s is lower than +350 odds. Place one unit on MT13 Anytime TD & one unit on MT13 2 TD’s. This is called a “ladder bet” and is reserved for the highest levels of degenerate gambling fun.
Dolphins @ Ravens -3.5 o/u 44.5
A tale of two offensive scenarios: Tua is not good as an NFL QB but is surrounded my immense talent at WR/RB whereas Lamar Jackson is a generational talent as an NFL QB but isn’t working with a whole lot with his position player options. Both teams sport solid defense. Lamar is betting on himself this season. I’m comfortable betting on him as well. The Dolphins didn’t win me over with their defeat of New England week 1
- Ravens -3.5 is the play
Colts & Jaguars +3.5 o/u 45.5
Our Jonathan Taylor rushing yards prop hit last week with the Colts. Jaguars let betters down by failing to cover or win straight up against the team from Washington. I like riding Jonathan Taylor OVER 99.5 rushing yds this week until he gives us reason not to or the line gets to far north of 100. The KOAT dives deep into his vat of data and arrives at the improbable underdog pick of Jaguars moneyline +165. NO MATTER WHAT, you must make sure that you place Matt Ryan OVER on his completions total when the line gets posted. Draftkings has yet to post this one specific Matt Ryan prop because they’re scared. They know we’ve figured out a ‘hack’, and they’re taking extra pre-cautions to stop us from attacking this one prop. Make em pay when it gets published
Jets @ Browns -6.5 o/u 39.5
The Cleveland Browns defeated a bad QB last week in Baker Mayfield. This week they’ll get a hapless Jets team back at home in Cleveland with a damn nightmare fuel inducing elf named “Browny” on the field. Also, they’re not just favorites in this game, the Jacoby Brissett led Browns are favored to win by a touchdown. Still not a reason to bet on the Jets this early in the season. We reserve that insanity for later. I like any NFL total in the 30’s when I can get it, so I’ll Take the Over of 39.5.
Patriots @ Steelers +2 o/u 40.5
The Steelers defeated AFC Champion Cincinnati on the road in overtime last week. The Patriots lost to Tua on the road. Given these facts this line surprises me. Neither team has any real cache of star power on offense. I lean towards Pittsburgh here. The KOAT uses his formulas and science to arrive at New England -2 & UNDER 40.5.
Panthers @ Giants -1.5 o/u 43.5
Saquon Barkley rose to the occasion last week and cashed as an Anytime TD scorer at +125. Don’t expect to see + odds on that pick again for the rest of the year. I’m going to lay off that same bet this week given it’s -125 flip. As much as I’d like to bet against the Panthers and Baker Mayfield here, I won’t. Instead I’ll ride with Saquon Barkley OVER 75.5 rushing yds -105. My gambling accomplice sees the result of this game as Panthers +1.5. He gets there via science. I don’t understand it, but who am I to question science.
Team from Washington @ Detroit -1 o/u 48.5
Detroit was a -2.5 favorite earlier this week – the first time Detroit has been a favorite in their last 25 games by the way. While we loooooooove betting on the Detroit lions to cover. This may not be the spot to do so here. The smart money has been bombarding the team that’s not Detroit in this game. The smarts are up to something here. Our resident smart, T, the King of all Touts, says that Washington -1 and OVER 48 are the plays. It’s nice having a smart bettor in residence. Makes these decisions easier.
ATL @ Rams -10 o/u 46.5
Lots of HUGE spreads upcoming. I don’t like double digit spreads in the NFL, even when a franchise as low, sad, gross, pitiful, worthless & losing as the Atlanta Falcons are involved. KOAT believes that all of the Rams, except for Allen Robinson, are going to dance all over the Falcons faces, and Rams -10 will cover. He hates the Falcons too, you should know.
Seattle @ San Francisco -8.5 o/u 41
Geno Smith looked like a well tenured savvy veteran QB for most of the game on Monday night against the Broncos, so much so that he turned what would have been a very profitable week for me into one that wasn’t when he calmly defeated Russell Wilson. I didn’t see much out of Trey Lance last week, but we’ll give him a mulligan due to the weather. We are one week away from a QB controversy in SF this season. This line opened -10 and has been falling ever since, I believe with good reason. I locked it in at 10, but I still will play Seattle +8.5. I don’t believe in Trey Lance beating this team by 9 or 10.
Cincinnati @ Dallas +7 o/u 42.5
Dallas is going to have a very hard time trying to score in this game. Week 1 is an unusually early point of the season to declare Dallas dead, but you could do so in the 4th Q of Week 1 on Sunday Night Football last week. Joe Burrow is not happy with his turnover/sack heavy loss last week. I believe they’ll cover this number with ease. Let’s get aggressive here and go Bengals -7 and add to that a more adventurous alternate total of Bengals -13.5 +174.
Houston @ Denver -10 o/u 46
I saw nothing in both teams week 1 games to justify a Denver 10 point spread here. The Tout-King disagrees and uses data and history to suggest that Denver covers. I’d sooner go place another bet against the Cowboys than to put my money in the hands of Russell Wilson to cover in this game. We’ll lay off this one.
Chicago @ Green Bay -9.5 o/u 41.5
Expect to see a Green Bay team that scores a fair amount of points, at least OVER the Team Total for Green Bay of 26.5 vs a Chicago team that roared back to score 19 points in a Great Lakes typhoon vs the 49ers last week. This big of a spread still spooks me. Let’s stick with that GB Team Total.
Tennessee @ Buffalo -9.5 o/u 48
Buffalo looks like the class of the NFL after week 1. This line feels high for a divisional rivalry such as this. Let’s bet on stars to emerge in this game with fair odds on the offensive positional player star of each team to score:
- Derek Henry Any TD +115
- Stefon Diggs Any TD -110
Arizona @ Las Vegas -5 o/u 51.5
This will be a fun Sunday afternoon matchup. Zona’s defense got sliced and diced by the Chefs last week. Derek Carr had one of those performances that remind folks that he’s not the superstar Derek Carr. Davante Adams props covered last week, but his numbers are getting too high and the odds too juiced to make a play here. It’s fun to root for one short QB scramble and a total in a shootout. Let’s keep this one simple and fun with two bets:
- Carr OVER 3.5 rushing yards (-120)
- OVER 51.5 points
Minnesota @ Philly -2.5 o/u 50.5
I don’t know how, I don’t know why, but last week Justin Jefferson was a +125 ANYTIME TD prop. We took it, and we cashed. This week, Justin Jefferson is still plus odds at +110 at Draftkings Sportsbook. Let’s go with a 3 unit bet on Justin Jefferson anytime TD +110. This type of charity must not be taken for granted. This is my big play of the week. I can’t like, I think I’m actually going 5 units on this wager, but I’ll keep it at 3 for purposes of this column and to not be too sensational.
That does it for week 2. Like what you’re reading? Follow me on twitter @takingtheover or T @tmanamongboys and search for Taking the Over with Billy Gunn for our podcast on your major podcast platforms.
We’ll see ya’ll on the other side.