NFL Week 1 – All 16 Games with 18 Best Bets & Why
NFL Week 1 is finally upon us. It’s been a long offseason that has led to gambling on all kinds of creative things to get us back to what feels like home. This is a weekly NFL rundown and review of the games and bets that I think show value or fun and are worth your time. All wagers assume 1 unit (standard bet) unless other wise noted. All odds are via DraftKings Sportsbook, where if you use Promo Code BOOT as a new customer, you’ll win $150 on any $5 wager in NFL week 1. Let’s get to the slate:
Bills @ Rams +2.5 Total = o/u 52
I’ve got nothing too crazy going on with the Thursday night opener. Just having football back is great, and this game feels hard to handicap. EXISTING DraftKings users can take advantage of a special bet where if you take either team MONEYLINE and that team gets up by 7 points at any point of the game, the bet wins. I like this kind of promo quite a bit. It’s the sportsbook trying to train you in winning. We’ll take the easy win here with either team moneyline to win, I personally like Buffalo
Saints @ Falcons +5.5 Total = o/u 42.5
I’m a lifelong Saints fan, and while I try to stay away from the emotional bias that comes with that as a bettor, I balance it with I know and follow the Saints unlike any other NFL franchise. Let’s find value without being tied to one specific outcome of the game. Here’s what I like:
- Mark Ingram ANYTIME TD (+350) – Ingram figures to be the go-to back inside the 5. This is a severely wrong odd on this and I like to take advantage. It started the week +400 and has come down
- Saints 1st Quarter -1 (+100) – Saints being the road team are more likely to get the opening kickoff if the Falcons use standard home field advantage coin toss strategy. I like this kind of 1st Q bet anytime I can see it without it being -3 or -7 to the better team. -1 for the road favorite will work more often than not
- Will Lutz OVER 2.5 XP’s (+110) 3 TD’s and 3 XP’s gets us to this plus odds bet. Lutz is back, and I expect 3 TD’s out of the Saints this week.
Ravens @ Jets +7 Total = o/u 44.5
While I think this is going to be a fascinating game to watch, I don’t like the spread or total on this one and I don’t see any props that jump out. I think this is most likely a case of Ravens WIN but don’t cover 7. Either way, I don’t want to be wasting resources betting on Jets week 1, so I’ll use this opportunity to share my biggest bet of the week: Saints/Jets/Broncos 3 leg MONEYLINE Parlay +150 3u. I know multi-leg ml parlays are a donkey bet, but HEE-HAW on this one, this is my biggest value of the week.
Colts @ Texans +7 Total = o/u 46
I’m tempted to take the over on the total here, but there’s something even more certain and fun afoot in this one, Running Back prop bets!!!
- Johnathon Taylor ran for over 100 yds in just about every game last season, avg’d more than 100 per start, and the books couldn’t make his rushing yardage total high enough down the stretch. This started at 98.5 and has fallen through the week. I like 96.5 here. JT OVER 96.5 yds rushing is the play
- Not to go un-noticed, his counterpart in this matchup for the Texans, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yardage total opened at 41.5 this week, and has grown to 47.5. Let’s grab this over before it gets to the moon Pierce OVER 47 rushing yards
Eagles @ Lions +4 Total = o/u 48.5
Another game that would be entertaining with no gambling sweat involved, I’m going to continue the tradition of taking the Lions as dogs. I really like them at +4 here, my favorite spread of the week.
- Lions +4 ALL DAY
Browns @ Panthers PK Total = o/u 42
This game opened favoring the Browns, swung to Panthers +2 earlier this week, and now sits at a pick-em. It’ll be nice for the Panthers to have CMC TD Factory back for probably at least a week. Let’s maximize that by attacking
- McCaffery 2 or more TD’s +500 – Let’s monetize CMC’s limited success.
Patriots @ Dolphins -3.5 Total = 48.5
When this game sat at Dolphins -3 I said if it gets another half point to 3.5 I’ll take Patriots +3.5. It got the half point. I’m in.
- Patriots +3.5 is the play
Jaguars @ Commanders -2.5 Total = 44
I’m not sure I could have less interest in a week 1 NFL matchup than I have in this game. I would bet NOTHING here. I don’t even advocate watching highlights of this game.
Steelers @ Bengals -6.5 Total = 44
The Steelers figure to be bad this year. How bad? We’ll have to wait until kickoff week 1 to unwrap that gift. Here’s where I like to get fancy on this one:
- Joe Burrow OVER 5.5 rushing yds – I really love QB rushing props when they’re funny low numbers like this. What’s more fun than rooting for Joey B airing it out??? Rooting for Joey B to have one solid scramble is my flavor of degeneracy.
Giants @ Titans -5.5 Total = 43.5
Titans went from #1 seed in the AFC to a team I’m not very high on going into 2022. I’d like to see what happens with these two teams, gather some daTa. In the meantime, let’s take (while he’s healthy and undervalued) :
- Saquon Barkley ANYTIME TD +135
Chiefs @ Cardinals +4.5 Total = o/u 53
I see surprisingly little about this matchup that’s likely to be high scoring that excites me. I can see some money towards various Marquise Brown props as we get into the weekend, but as for now I’ve got nothing.
Packers @ Vikings +1.5 Total = o/u 47
Very excited to see the Vikings NOT under Mike Zimmer. My co-host says he looks forward to fading Green Bay all year. I’ll join him in week 1:
- Vikings +1.5
- Jefferson ANYTIME TD +120 feels like a gift
Raiders @ Chargers -3.5 Total = o/u 52.5
The first of many AFC West shootouts is on deck with this one. Being 3.5 point road dogs feels wrong for the Raiders given that this isn’t even really a “road” game for them and they beat the Chargers by 3 in OT in the regular season finale last year. The Raiders got better. Couple bets I feel strongly about here:
- Raiders +3.5
- Davante Adams ANYTIME TD +125
- Take the Over 52.5 here.
Bucs @ Cowboys +2.5 Total = o/u 50.5
I believe this is the year the wheels come off for Tampa Tom. I hate the Cowboys and I think they’ve got a bad coach in Mike McDeadmanwalking. Even still, give me:
- Cowboys ML (+125)
Broncos @ Seahawks +6.5 Total = o/u 44.5
Monday Night Football is going to feature Russ Wilson returning to Seattle to take on Geno Smith and an injured rookie RB. As mentioned earlier, I like the Broncos to finish off a 3 leg ml parlay here. My co-host, the Tout-King himself, likes:
- Seahawks Team Total UNDER 18.5 pts
That’s it for week 1 folks. I’ll be doing this every week and tracking.
If you’d like to participate in our FREE $500 Capper’s Challenge get at me takingtheover on Twitter. And please check out our podcast “Taking the Over with Billy Gunn” on bootkrewemedia or wherever you get your podcasts.
See ya’ll on the other side.