NFL Week 4 Gambling Companion
We’re all human. To be human is to experience human emotions and human drama. Your author has had one hell of a human emotion & drama filled week, and we haven’t even gotten to the gambling yet. Bad thing about being a tout, the world doesn’t stop just because someone you love is in immense pain. Good thing about being a tout, is we have NFL Football Week 4 to distract us from the ugliness.
Last week’s picks went 9-12-1 to finish down 2.9 units, bringing us to 32-32-1 and down -2.5 units. Over the first 3 weeks of NFL action we’ve laid out 66 units in bets, to be down 2.5 is a total loss of 4% on the year. Nothing to write home about, but nothing to panic about either. The NFL season is a long road for gamblers, and you can easily finish in the green if you handle things properly. Let’s get to the action. All odds are via Draftkings Sportsbook and all wagers are 1 unit and -110 odds unless otherwise specified. It’s time to make some $$$.
Vikings -3 @ Saints (London Home Game) o/u 42
It’s been a painful start to the season for us Saints fans. It’s hard to identify any one singular reason why the Who Dats haven’t had much success outside of 1 quarter of football this year. It’s time to stop thinking like a homer and try to engineer some reverse Voodoo against our beloved boys. I like to do this thing called “buying a win” – what I’ll do is, I’ll wager against my favorite team, with the expectation that they are going to lose (and I’ll get paid) vs if I have “jinxed” them with my wager against them and they foil me and win, I’ve basically bought a Saints win with my mush superpowers. Another part of this insane strategy is you don’t want to bet the spread… let’s say you bet Vikes -3 and they only win by 1, you’ve lost the bet and the Saints game. In order to do this properly, we’re going to have to go Moneyline. Let’s get wet with a 3 unit bet on Vikings ml -165.
Chargers @ Texans +5 o/u44
This spread has been falling throughout the week, opening at six and currently residing at 5. This would indicate either “smart” money or the bulk of the money is coming in on the Texans. I like what Lovie Smith has done with this Texans team through 3 weeks, and I like Texans to cover the +5 spread.
NYJ @ Pittsburgh -3 o/u 42
The Jets will have Zack “I know your mother in a biblical fashion” Wilson returning under center when they travel to Pittsburgh to take on a hapless Mitch Trubisky led Steelers team. Pittsburgh hasn’t fashioned a whole lot of offense this season while the Jets have been throwing the ball more than just about anyone else in the league. I was wrong about NYJ last week, and I’ll ride that bad decision again here: NYJ -3 is the play.
Cleveland @ Atlanta -1 o/u 47.5
The total on this game has been falling all week, was 49.5 just two days ago. I agree with the line movers that the Under is the play here, even at the diminished late week value of Under 47.5. I’ve also gone on record in saying that I believe that the NFL is going to have an Ohio sized problem on it’s hands in January when Deshaun Watson is playing in high profile important playoff games. This Cleveland team is weathering the storm of the Watson suspension. I like Cleveland -1 here to continue to do so.
Jacksonville @ Philadelphia -6.5 o/u 45.5
This is another example of a total that has been falling as the week goes on. This actually works in our favor here, as both my co-host and I favor Taking the Over of 45.5 in this matchup. Jacksonville has been impressive so far this year, and I feel like they’ll hang with the Eagles for a Cover/Don’t win spot here. Jacksonvile +6.5 is the second play on this one.
Bills @ Ravens +3 o/u 51
This marquee AFC interdivisional matchup is going to be the most exciting game of the noon/1 pm slate. Bills looking to rebound on the road for a second consecutive week after a loss to the Dolphins in Miami last Sunday. The weather will be more favorable, and so will the scoring opportunities as we expect both teams to light it up and cover the 51 point total OVER. Also feel like the Bills are a safe pick here for a win or at least a push with Bills -3.
Team that resides near the US Capitol @ Cowboys -3 o/u 42.5
Fuck this game. Seriously, just fuck it. Gambling can’t even save this. I expect the Dallas Cowboys magical mystery tour of defeating shit NFL East opponents to continue though, so let’s jump on Cowboys -3 to cover much like they did last week over the Giants.
Seahawks @ Lions -4.5 o/u 48
It’s fun betting on the Lions when they’re underdogs. It’s a favorite past-time of most serious NFL cappers over the last couple of years. Betting on the Lions as favorites is unfamiliar territory. One thing about Lions games is they’re always going to run the ball well, and the other is they’re not going to slam the door shut if they’re carrying a lead or playing from behind and always seem to land somewhere within the spread. Lets take the Lions OVER their team total of 26.5 at -115 in this one. I anticipate Lions scoring but can’t vouch for the Hawks to do so.
Titans @ Colts -3 o/u 43
The best advice I heard on any wager last week was via my co-host Mrs_Toutfire when he solo hosted our pod and picked Titans as dogs against the Raiders. The Colts offense has been lethargic but they’re also starting to wade into do-or-die portion of their season, which we say last week when teh Colts defeated the Chefs as heavy dogs, can be quite the motivator. I’m going to defer to the T man on this one, and roll with Titans/Colts UNDER 43 here.
Bears @ Giants -3 o/u 39.5
I see all kinds of gambling opportunities here, and it’s not just because the Bears are really really bad…. wait, no, actually, it has everything to do with the Bears futility. Here’s a series of bets to place on this game:
- Under 39.5 (-105)
- Bears Total points band 11-20 +145
- Giants 1st half -1.5 (-105)
- Daniel Jones vs Justin Fields Passing Line Spread Jones -47.5 -115
Arizona @ Carolina +1 o/u 43.5
I think we’ve found our incredibly incorrect line this week. Even with Zona’s early game struggles, it’s inconceivable to me that they’re not the favorites in this game. Let’s go 3 units Zona -1 -105. Given that Arizona has been notorious slow starters this season, let’s get fancy with a Panthers 1st Q ml / Zona game ml at +475 odds. Feels right.
Patriots @ Packers -9 o/u 40
The notoriously star power devoid Patriots are likely to be without their one ‘name’ on offense, Mac Jones. The Tout-King believes that the way to go in this one is to take Pats Team Total UNDER 14.5 pts. He’s leading our current TTO Capper’s Challenge. I can’t argue with him on this one.
Denver @ Raiders -2.5 o/u 45.5
My favorite new NFL hobby is to sit back, relax, and watch the dumpster fire unfold in Denver. Raiders have been pretty fraudulent too this year. I don’t need action here, the Russell Wilson experience crashing and burning in real time is all that I need in this one.
Chefs @ Bucs -1 o/u 42
This spread has been flip-flopping all week. With the Bucs injury issues at WR they’ve looked pretty impotent offensively. Mahomes has been getting it done despite not having a single WR with over 100 yds rec in one game yet this year. I like the Chefs -1 in this one.
Rams @ 49ers -1.5 o/u 42
This is another line that doesn’t make much sense to me here. I like the Rams ml +100. On our pod this week T tried to explain to me all the reasons why this spread is what it is and Shanahan’s ownership of McVay. I don’t want to hear it. Go ahead and add Rams +105 race to 15 winner for good measure in this one.
So concludes another week of the column. Many thanks to those that have reached out as I navigate a small personal matter. It’s great to build the community that we have in the universe of Taking the Over.
