NFL Week 3 All 16 Games & 23 Best Bets
NFL Week 2 has come and gone, leaving in it’s wake a 13-11 record of the picks from this column. We combine that with week 1 to bring us to 23-20 on the season plus .40 units. Basically break even through two weeks of prolific NFL wagering. I sense a breakout of success coming in week 3. Let’s get to the slate. All odds are via Draftkings Sportsbook and assume 1 unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Saints @ Panthers +2.5 o/u 41
I had the opportunity to watch the All 22 film of the Saints v Bucs week 2 matchup, and took away several things I didn’t see first viewing: The Saints OL played well in pass protection but had a lot of help from TE’s & RB’s staying home to help block as well as the Bucs have a great defense. I expect the Saints to bounce back against a hapless and poorly coached Carolina team. We’ll stay away from wagers on the results of this one, but I really like the idea of Juwan Johnson OVER 22.5 yds REC -115. Jameis has been targeting the large receiving TE quite a bit in weeks 1 and 2.
Ravens @ Patriots +3 o/u 44
The Ravens collapsed and failed to cover in spectacular fashion against Tua and the Dolphins last week. The collapse overshadowed a very impressive performance from Lamar Jackson. I continue to maintain that the Patriots have no offensive firepower, and I’m comfortable taking Ravens -3 on the road following a tough loss. I wouldn’t like this if it grew to 3.5 or more. I don’t see much value in this beyond a Ravens win.
Bills @ Dolphins +5 o/u 53
Last week I spoke about how poorly I feel like Tua performs as the Dolphins QB. He responded with a record setting performance. Re-watched the improbable massive 4th Q comeback that the Dolphins engineered and I’ll double down on my claim: Despite throwing for over 400 yards and 6 TD’s last week, I don’t believe Tua is the real deal. I think the Bills Defense will illustrate that this week. The Bills are the class of the NFL through the first two weeks. Let’s do a 2 way 6 point teaser down to Bills +1 and OVER 47 points at -120 odds. Either team seems capable of scoring almost 47 on their own this week and I don’t see a Bills meltdown in the Miami sun.
Chiefs @ Colts +5.5 o/u 50.5
The Colts and Matt Ryan still haven’t overcome the ghost of their regular season playoff eliminating loss to Jacksonville to end last season and came with an encore ss to the Jaguars last week. Not just any loss either, the Colts went down 24-0 to the Jags. It’s time to hammer the panic button in Indy and I feel like hammering Chiefs -5.5 on the road in this one. This game also provides a prime opportunity for one of my favorite bets: non-running QB short rushing yardage totals. Give me ALL OF Matt Ryan OVER 2.5 rushing yards -120.
Eagles @ Team from Washington DC +6.5 o/u 47.5
Washington Football Team looks like they might be the worst team in the NFL East this year through 2 games. The Eagles meanwhile, look like the much touted team everyone has claimed them to be over the summer. This line feels a little too heavy for an inter-division matchup, but there are some valuable player/game props to grab on this one.
- Devonta Smith ANYTIME TD +195
- Eagles 1st Q -1 -105
Bengals @ Jets +6 o/u 44.5
I’ve shared previously that one of my favorite degenerate gambling things to do is bet on teams that are the epitome of haplessness, like the Jets, when I see the value there. MAN YOUR DEGENERATE BETTING BATTLE STATIONS, LET THE RECORD REFLECT WEEK 3 IS THE WEEK WE UNLEASHED WAGERING ON NY JETS SPREADS. Jets +6 is the play here. Something is wrong in Cinci and it ain’t just the offensive line. Let’s keep it simple and bet Jets and assume the cover.
Raiders @ Titans +2 o/u 45.5
My podcast co-host, the King of Thursday Night Football and all things Tout-dom, put me on this one. Titans as an underdog is a confounding line here. The Raiders have shown a regression through two weeks from the playoff team they were, and Tennessee is Tennessee. Nothing flashy, and hard to beat at home. As long as this line stays at 2 I’ll surrender those points to take Titans moneyline at +110. If this line runs to 3 (i doubt it will) I could see Titans +3 as an option as well. Also, go ahead and add Darren Waller UNDER 51.5 rec yds -110 because not since Jared Cook has there been an NFL tight end that squandered their physical gifts with a football IQ like that of a 2nd grader at recess.
Texans @ Bears -3 o/u 39.5
Speaking of lines that don’t quite make sense, I’d throw this one in the same box. The Texans have looked like a scrappy over-achieving bunch with former Bears Super Bowl Head Coach Lovie Smith in charge. I love Lovie getting 3 points in his return to Chicago with a team that is more talented and motivated than the hapless Bears Texans +3 2 units is one of my favorite bets of the week. Let’s get a little bit Hedgey (new word alert) by placing a Justin Fields ANYTIME TD +200 prop as well.
Lions @ Vikings -6 o/u 52.5
The only thing I like more than betting on a Jets spread underdog is betting on a Lions spread underdog and boy do we have our chance here. Inter-division, on the road, 6 points spread. Just beauty as far as the eye can see. Let’s go with Lions +6 and also put a half unit (half your standard bet) on Lions moneyline +210. I like Dan Campbell’s squad to over-achieve here. This total of Over 52.5 is something I think we should crash as well.
Jacksonville @ Chargers -3 o/u 42.5
My absolute favorite player prop through the first two weeks of the NFL season has been Christian Kirk REC yds OVERS. Here’s the deal: The Jags gave Kirk a big dumb contract that he didn’t deserve in the offseason via free agency. However, what you don’t need to do is assume that Kirk will under perform for the contract… what you DO need to assume is that Kirk is going to get a bulk of targets as the Jaguars work to affirm their (incorrect) belief that Kirk is a #1 WR option. He covered this prop with ease in weeks 1 & 2, and will do so again here. Christian Kirk OVER 58.5 rec yds -115 is the play. You can safely play this prop every week until the number gets into the upper 60’s. Also not sure why the total is so low here, let’s Take the OVER 42.5 in this game as well.
Rams @ Cardinals+3.5 o/u 48.5
Before you the reader go any further, let’s stop and go place a wager on the Over 48.5 via Draftkings Sportsbook. I’ll wait. You back now? Good, let’s talk about Kyler Murray. Kyler Murray is one of the most amazing QB’s to watch perform in the current day NFL until about week 10. After week 10, the accumulation of damage to his 5’6 145 lb frame begins to take it’s toll. Let’s place a Kyler Murray ANYTIME TD +175 so that we benefit financially when he scampers into the end zone, and enjoy a wild NFC West Sunday afternoon shootout.
Falcons @ Seahawks -1 o/u 42
This game is a perfect example of why god invented sports gambling. If not for organized wagering, I’m not sure you can justify playing this game. Pretty remarkable achievement for these two teams considering it’s only week 3 to be so irrelevant. You ever heard the phrase “to make it interesting?” This game needs a wager, and a dumb one at that. Let’s place a Seahawks -1 / Under 42 parlay +264 just to make it interesting.
Packers @ Bucs -1 o/u 42
I gotta say, the NFL on Fox #1 booth broadcast team of Burkhardt/Olsen ain’t it. Clearly the runt of the litter of the premium game booth teams, these guys are nowhere near the league of what CBS, ABC/ESPN or even Amazon is throwing out there as the #1 booth teams. Olsen is Mr. Platitude. I hope they make a change at some point. They’ll be broadcasting this game, which I expect the Bucs to win. The Bucs have a very good defense and Tom Brady. This line feels like it can be taken advantage of. Let’s go Bucs -1.
49ers @ Broncos +1.5 o/u 43.5
Another line that feels very complimentary is this one in favor of the 9ers. Russell Wilson, two games into his Denver stay, is getting boo’d mercilessly at home. Broncos coach is a disaster, Wilson move looks like it will be a disaster, and I believe the 49ers are a better team with Jimmy G as the unquestioned QB1 moving forward. I expect a lot of angry Denvarians at this one. Let’s go 49ers -1.5.
Cowboys @ Giants -1 o/u 39
I’m starting to worry that Mother Universe is not on board with the narrative of Sean Payton succeeding Mike McCarthy in Dallas after this season. The plucky McCarthy might just have bumble-fucked his way into yet another playoff season with this squad and perhaps because of, the injury to Dak Prescott. Mike Daboll, first year HC of the Giants feels cut from a McCarthy-esque bumble-fuck cloth. Daboll has managed to start off 2-0. I hate this game and pretty much everything about it. But, we came here to gamble, so let’s do so. dallas +1 is the pick.
That’s it for week 3. Make sure to check out the Taking the Over pod, hosted this week solo by the man known as one letter. Availabe on all major podcast apps by searching for “taking the over with billy gunn”. We’ll see ya’ll next week.